Thursday, August 30, 2012

Iron Dirigible Draft 2012

You know what this blog needs? MORE SPORTS TALK! But not just any sports talk, I need something that is both abstract in concept and requires an immensely deep understanding of a particular sport. This leaves only one logical option: FANTASY FOOTBALL!!

P.S. It's more fun if you imagine me saying "Fantasy Football" in the Denzel Crocker "Fairy Godparents" voice.
P.P.S. This blog has started out with me discussing sports trivia and a tacit admission of watching Nickelodeon as late as high school. I am seriously not making good decision re: the Fine Honeys.

This blog post is spiraling out of control and heading to a very dark place. I'd better engage in some course correction stat. Save me, Peeta Mellark!

 "This bread is like our district: soft and white."~Peeta Mellark
What?! You were supposed to help me, Peeta. Noooooooo!
Okay, so quoting Peeta isn't helping me at this precise moment. I'm just going to back away slowly now. Hunger Games, you'll get your day. Soon. You're the blog update that the English Muffin Power hour deserves, but not the one it needs right now. So we'll postpone it, because you can take it. Because you're not a hero. You're a silent protector. A watchful guardian. A dark knight.

Anyways, earlier this month, I held the 6th annual Iron Dirigible Draft at my apartment, because I was straight power tripping. Additionally, it was the largest attended draft in our brief history. We had 6 of the league's 8 members gathered in one place at one time. And when you consider that Sam never shows up for the draft, it's pretty good to only be missing one guy. Let me say, nothing compares with drafting with your friends in person, all together. My personal highlight of the night was when Pimpmaster Doug took Brandon Lloyd the pick before me, I shouted "Are you a wizard?!" because that was the second pick of mine he stole from under my nose out of a possible three times that night.

Anyways, on topic, the point is I'd thought I'd do a quick recap of the draft. I figure I'd do rounds 1-4 individually, rounds 5-12 by pairs, and rounds 13-16 as one big group because drafts become increasingly desperate and therefore less controversial. Also, it makes a nice bit of symmetry in that I will do exactly 9 recaps and that appeases my neurotic side. Plus there will be nine recaps to counter the nine Black Riders of Mordor, so that's nice.

"Did he just make a Lord of the Rings reference right after inadvertantly dissing The Hunger Games AND quoting The Dark Knight?"
"Yeah, I think he did. Player does not have his head in the game today."


N.B. This draft took place on August 9th, because it was the last day everyone was going to be in town. So a number of picks look really silly in hindsight.

Round 1

1Arian Foster, Hou RBMore Dr Pepper
2Aaron Rodgers, GB QBBelmont Godfearers
3Ray Rice, Bal RBTeam Gray
4Tom Brady, NE QBTeam Tune
5LeSean McCoy, Phi RB  Hunterian Velociraptors
6Calvin Johnson, Det WRVandy PimpMasters
7Drew Brees, NO QBWest Katzen Maus Munchers
8Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RBTeam McLovin

Pick I love: There's an old saying in fantasy football: "You can't win your league with your first pick, but you certainly can lose it". The Bean Machine (Belmont Godfearers) has taken this motto to heart in the past. Over the past five years, he's drafted 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 6th and now 2nd again this year. In that period of time, he's never once had his first round pick live up to expectations. So I really applaud Bean's selection of Aaron Rodgers. In the 4 years Rodgers' been a starter in the NFL, he's finished either 1st or 2nd among QBs in fantasy scoring every single time. That is ridiculous consistency and he's only 28! He's just entering his prime! This will be the Unstoppable Force meeting the Immovable Object. Which is greater: Aaron Rodgers or the Bean Curse?

Pick I hate: Maurice Jones-Drew by Dylan (Team McLovin). MJD feels like he'll be the sequel to 2011's horror film: Chris Johnson on a Holdout. Even if he doesn't miss time (no guarantee), he'll have missed camp. He's still in his prime and he's been crazy consistent and crazy talented. But the holdout craziness is something I want no part of.

Pick I made: I was lucky that LeSean "Shady" McCoy fell to me at the 5th pick. The biggest problem McCoy has is that running plays confuse and mystify Eagles' head coach Andy Reid. However, over his three year career, McCoy's seen his carries per season climb from 155 to 207 to 273 and his rushing touchdowns climb from 4 to 7 to 17. While I don't think the touchdowns are an example of sustainable growth, I think the carries are. I also know the Eagles are gonna be super careful with Michael "Never Plays a Full Season" Vick so McCoy will keep getting the goal line carries. Finally, he's gotten over 1,600 total yards of offense every time he's been a starter. I'll gladly take the last sure thing at running back with my middle of the first round pick.

Round 2

9Chris Johnson, Ten RBTeam McLovin
10Ryan Mathews*, SD RBWest Katzen Maus Munchers
11Matt Forte, Chi RBVandy PimpMasters
12Matthew Stafford, Det QB  Hunterian Velociraptors
13Marshawn Lynch, Sea RBTeam Tune
14Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WRTeam Gray
15Rob Gronkowski, NE TEBelmont Godfearers
16Andre Johnson, Hou WRMore Dr Pepper

Pick I love:  You know what's almost as good as getting 1,600 yards of total offense every year you start? Getting 1,400 yards of total offense. Despite playing with Kyle Orton, despite a terrible offensive line, despite missing the last month of the season last year, Matt Forte has always produced at least 1,400 yards of total offense. Now the Bears have a stronger offense than they've ever had and Forte is primed to get some end zone love (only four touchdowns last year). This was a great pick-up by the Pimpmaster Doug and I sort of hate him for stealing the guy I was just about to pick.

Pick I hate: First and foremost, a pardon to the Baron (and by extension, my dad). This draft occurred mere hours before Mathews injured his collarbone on the first play of the season. Hindsight is 20/20 so we won't hold that against him. And there's a pick I hate even more than Mathews in a vacuum. Andre Johnson at the end of the 2nd round is a very rough pick. Andre Johnson has a sterling reputation because he rose up out of nowhere in 2008, brought ruination to his enemies, and ruled as Supreme Warlord of Wide Receiveria, the sovereign kingdom of wide receivers. He put up great numbers again in 2009 and that cemented his reputation as a top tier wide receiver. However, in 2010, he injured his ankle and missed a few games. Bad but not enough to damage his reputation. But in 2011, he missed most of the season with a hamstring injury and was limited by it when he could play. So let's look at Andre's career through a wider lens. He's 31, which means he's not only exiting his prime but his body is beginning to age unfavorably. He's never had 10 touchdowns in a season, which means he gets his points through volume, not big scores. Finally, his receptions per game has been on a downward slope since his breakout 2008 season. This is a textbook case of paying a premium on past performance. FULL DISCLOSURE: This was an auto-pick.

Pick I made: Well, this is awkward. I just publicly declared my love for Matt Forte and now he's gone forever. Um.. how do I make this up to Matthew Stafford? Here goes: Matthew Stafford is the least talked about guy to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. Stupid Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. The slam against Matthew Stafford has always been "Can he stay healthy?". In fact, the very clever Matthew Berry of ESPN (no relation. Come on, it's not even spelled the same way!) legally changed Stafford's name to "Matthew Stafford-if-he-stays-healthy". Well, Stafford-if-he-stays-healthy did stay healthy and he tore it up. He's got the most talented wide receiver in football and no running game to speak of whatsoever. Stafford's gonna be throwing the ball a lot because that's how they do it in Motown. His past injuries were mostly flukes rather than consistent soft tissue injuries like hamstrings. Stafford's got nothing to prove and the raw talent and opportunity to repeat last year.

Round 3
17Roddy White, Atl WRMore Dr Pepper
18Wes Welker, NE WRBelmont Godfearers
19Greg Jennings, GB WRTeam Gray
20Jamaal Charles, KC RBTeam Tune
21Jimmy Graham, NO TE  Hunterian Velociraptors
22Darren McFadden, Oak RBVandy PimpMasters
23Adrian Peterson, Min RBWest Katzen Maus Munchers
24Mike Wallace, Pit WRTeam McLovin

Pick I Love: Adrian Peterson has been the consensus #1 pick since his rookie year. The only reason he's falling to the end of the third round is that we don't know how long it would take for him to recover from his ACL tear at the end of last season. Now, it seems like he'll be ready for game action in Week 1! I don't expect him to immediately go back to Beast Mode, but it's undeniably a great sign that he's ready for game action. 12 games (maybe more) of No Doubt Top 5 RB talent at the end of the 3rd round is a steal.

Pick I Hate: My friends know that I am a notorious "homer". I possess an irrational love for the players on my favorite team: the Pittsburgh Steelers (yeah, not exactly the home team but I was not going to be a Redskins fan growing up!). So understand that it is with a heavy heart that I hate the pick of Mike Wallace here. I was touting Wallace as a great wide receiver so hard last year and I wanted him to succeed. But then Antonio Brown emerged from the foundries of the Steel City and became Roethlisberger's favorite target. Even ignoring the impact Wallace's recently-ended holdout, Antonio Brown was the preferred receiver on the Steelers straight-up. In the 7 games before Brown emerged, Wallace had four 100 yard games, at least 75 yards every game, and scored 5 touchdowns. In the 9 games he shared attention with Brown, Wallace had no 100 yard games, only got more than 75 yards once, and scored just 3 touchdowns (including two in one day, which suggests more of a secondary mismatch than preference).

Pick I Made: You know what the difference between Jimmy Graham's season last year and Rob Gronkowski's record shattering year for a tight end was? Six touchdowns and 17 yards. Jimmy Graham had actually had 9 more receptions than Gronk, but Gronk's plays were just a little bit longer. I don't think Gronk's 17 touchdowns are repeatable, but I do think Graham's 11 are. He's clearly a favorite target of Drew Brees, a man who hates having favorite targets. Plus, he's 6 foot 7 and runs like a wide receiver, so how exactly are defenses supposed to cover him?

Round 4

25Eli Manning, NYG QBTeam McLovin
26Cam Newton, Car QBWest Katzen Maus Munchers
27Peyton Manning, Den QBVandy PimpMasters
28Brandon Marshall, Chi WR  Hunterian Velociraptors
29A.J. Green, Cin WRTeam Tune
30DeMarco Murray, Dal RBTeam Gray
31Steven Jackson, StL RBBelmont Godfearers
32Hakeem Nicks, NYG WRMore Dr Pepper

Pick I Love: This is around the time when we start running out of sure things and the draft becomes even more about value. While DeMarco Murray has never played a full season and we're really basing this pick around a 7 game sample from last year, I love this pick at 30. Murray plays on a team that should score a lot of points and he lit it up when he was the starter last year. If he stays healthy, he could be this year's Matthew Stafford. Except a running back, which is good because you have to play two of them. His average draft position on ESPN is 20th overall so it's a relative bargain to get him with the 30th pick. FULL DISCLOSURE: This was an auto-pick.

Pick I Hate: This is a tough one because there's a pick I absolutely hate and a pick I conditionally hate. I absolutely hate taking Eli 25th. I didn't hate it at the time, but the more I thought about it, the more I disliked it. Eli threw for nearly 5,000 yards last year and he didn't get 30 passing touchdowns. His career high in passing touchdowns is only 31. Eli is a great real life quarterback, but the Giants don't like to throw the ball when they get in close. The 25th pick is a high price to pay for a guy who, under best case scenario, is not going to score that many touchdowns. However, I also hate Cam Newton at 26 for the Baron's team. You took Drew Brees in the 1st round, a man whose only suffered one fluke injury in his career. A 4th round pick is a very high price to pay for an insurance policy. Just consider the opportunity cost of taking Cam Newton here: a number of WR's or RBs with top 5 potential such as DeMarco Murray and Brandon Marshall and reliable RBs such as Steven Jackson.

Pick I Made: Quick history lesson: the last time Jeremy Bates, Jay Cutler, and Brandon Marshall worked together, Marshall had 1,265 yards on 104 receptions. The gang's been reassembled in Chicago. Despite having to over come Kyle Orton, Chad Pennington, Matt Moore, and Chad Henne at quarterback, Brandon Marshall's never had less than 1,000 yards when he was a starter. Now he's the undisputed top receiver on a progressively scary Chicago offense.

Rounds 5 & 6
33Michael Vick, Phi QBMore Dr Pepper
34Victor Cruz, NYG WRBelmont Godfearers
35Julio Jones, Atl WRTeam Gray
36Fred Jackson, Buf RBTeam Tune
37Trent Richardson, Cle RB  Hunterian Velociraptors
38Steve Smith, Car WRVandy PimpMasters
39Marques Colston, NO WRWest Katzen Maus Munchers
40Frank Gore, SF RBTeam McLovin

41Dez Bryant, Dal WRTeam McLovin
42Darren Sproles, NO RBWest Katzen Maus Munchers
43Brandon Lloyd, NE WRVandy PimpMasters
44Willis McGahee, Den RB  Hunterian Velociraptors
45Jordy Nelson, GB WRTeam Tune
46Matt Ryan, Atl QBTeam Gray
47Michael Turner, Atl RBBelmont Godfearers
48Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG RBMore Dr Pepper

Pick I Love: Observant readers may recall that earlier in the draft I said that I accused Pimpmaster Doug of being a wizard and using his magical powers to read my thoughts and steal my picks. This was the reason why. Brandon Lloyd may have the whitest/nerdiest name this side of Carlton Banks, but he's going to do terrible things to defenses this year. Terrible, terrible things. Another history lesson: Brandon Lloyd has worked with Patriots' offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels three times before; once when McDaniels coached the Broncos in 2009, again when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator of the Rams in 2011, and finally this year in New England. In 2009, Brandon Lloyd was the #1 fantasy receiver with Kyle "Neckbeard" Orton as his quarterback. In 2011, McDaniels traded to have him back. And then Lloyd followed McDaniels to New England. Now, Lloyd has had a very quiet preseason with the Patriots, which is exactly why I'm terrified to be opposing him. You know who else had a quiet preseason for New England? Randy Moss in 2007! 0 receptions in the preseason and he goes on toset the single season receiving touchdowns record. You know who else had a really quiet preseason for New England? Rob Gronkowski in 2011! 1 reception for 11 yards and he went on to set the receiving touchdowns record for a tight end! Now, I'm not saying that Brandon Lloyd will set a new TD record, but I am saying that the Patriots keep their secret weapons a secret.

Pick I Hate: Up until now, Dorian Gray's draft has been on autopick and there have been some good selections. Then Dorian shows up and selects Matt Ryan 46th. First of all, total homer move. Second of all, Matt Ryan is going 60th according to average draft pick, so this is a pretty big reach. Third, why would you reach for a guy who has been consitently above average his whole career when there were QBs who had glimpses of greatness still on the board (namely, Tony Romo and Phillip Rivers).

Picks I Made: The theme of this pair of draft picks is "Oh God, LeSean McCoy is my only running back. Oh God, help, help, help!" with a motif of "Crap, I had hoped Brandon Lloyd would still be there" (his average draft position is 50 by the way, so it would have been a total reach at 37). I did flip back and forth between taking Darren Sproles at 37 or Trent Richardson. Richardson is a risk because there hasn't been a great rookie running back since Matt Forte in 2008 (although to hear ESPN say it, 2008 is the ancient past and no rookie running back will ever be great again). Ultimately, I liked Richardson's upside more than Sproles' and I think that Sproles is a risk not to repeat his top 10 performance last year (which I feel is the best you can possibly hope from him). Then there was the immediate reaction to taking an "All or Nothing" running back with "Safe #2 RB" Willis McGahee. He was the #20 RB last year and Peyton Manning running backs tend to get a lot of scoring opportunities. I don't think he has a good shot at the top ten, but I know he'll be reliable.

Rounds 7 & 8

Pick I Love: Percy Harvin was the #8 fantasy wide receiver last year. So why are we taking him as the 19th wide receiver off the board? Sure he wasn't on the field a ton and his points were unorthodox, but points are points. He's clearly the #1 WR in Minnesota and Christian Ponder will only get better. Give me the upside of Harvin over a guy who may or may not be the #1 guy in Miles Austin. Plus, he scored two rushing touchdowns last year! TWO! That's twice as many as Michael Vick!

Pick I Hate: The temptation is to go Jahvid Best here, since he may not even play this season but I extend Mathews Amnesty to him. We didn't know how severe it was so you can cut Pimpmaster Doug some slack (not too much though, because you knew it had to be bad if they were still talking about a concussion from last year). But there is one pick that has no excuse. Mighty Tune knowingly and of his own free will took Roy Helu 61st. Even ignoring Helu's injury problems that would come up after the draft, it's incredibly risky to take a Washington running back. Washington's coach, Mike Shanahan, is notorious for refusing to commit to a single running back and going with seemingly random (albeit successful) decisions each week. The worst part is you have no way of knowing which running back it will be in a given week.

Picks I Made: I talked about my Antonio Brown love at length earlier in the article when I said why I didn't like Mike Wallace. He was clearly preferred over Mike Wallace during the second half of last season. He did only have two touchdowns, but that's an argument for Brown, not against him. Simple regression to the mean suggests that Brown will score more than two touchdowns this season. Doug Martin is another risky rookie running back, but it's one that's starting to pan out. Doug "the Muscle Hamster" Martin was the sleeper I was crazy about this year and I definitely reached to be sure I got him. However, time is already vindicating me since he was just given the starting job over LeGarette Blount. Over the past 7 days alone, Martin's average draft position has increased by 15 places and is now going as the 67th overall pick on average. What started as a reach of 22 places has been reduced to a reach of 7 places (i.e. not a full rotation of the league). All in all, these were the picks I was proudest of. I didn't have to compromise or adjust my plans and I got both the guys I wanted.

Rounds 9 & 10

Pick I Love: Back in 2009, I had a joke with the Bean Machine about who the best cornerback in football was. At the time, all the rage was Darell Revis and the legendary "Revis Island" he would exile the player he covered to. I argued that the best cornerback remained Nnamdi Asomugha but no one could actually say his name, which is why we didn't talk about it. If Nnamdi Asomugha was named Steve Johnson, he'd be all the rage. At the time, Steve Johnson was the best original generic name I could think of (John Doe/Smith is WAAAAAAY overdone). Then Steve Johnson became a real person who played in the NFL and the joke ascended into the realm of awesome. This is my round about way of saying I love the pick up of Steve Johnson. In terms of relevant football stats, since emerging in 2010, Steve Johnson has had over 1,000 yards receiving each year and is the top touchdown target on the Bills. You could do worse at the end of the 9th round.

N.B. Bean got Beanie Wells. Hee hee hee!

Pick I Hate: Every once in a while, there's a player who has the opportunity to be great, has the talent to be great, and then is just awful. After battling injuries in 2010, 2011 seemed like the year Jermichael Finley would explode onto the scene. After all, people had a good feeling about his quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, so why wouldn't his tight end have value as well? Well, people were right about Aaron Rodgers, but completely wrong about Finley. He finished with an acceptable 767 yards and 8 touchdowns, both of which were career highs. The problem is Aaron Rodgers had 4,600 passing yards and 45 touchdowns last year. Plus, 3 of his 8 touchdowns came on one day. All in all, despite an ideal situation, Jermichael Finley didn't rise to the occassion and was less than 1 point per game better than the #10 fantasy TE (i.e. the best available replacement from the waiver wire).

Picks I Made: Earlier, I proudly proclaimed that I believed in Matthew Stafford's health. Well, my momma didn't raise no fool either. I felt it was a priority to take the Roethlisberger here because he is famously injury resistant (he'll play through anything) and because Todd Haley is a QB genius (he made Matt Cassell a playoff caliber quarterback!) and because Go Steelers! All things being equal, why not pick the QB who leads your favorite team? The next QB taken, Robert Griffin III, is an unproven commodity and therefore a risk. You never back up a risk with a risk. After that, I took Demaryius Thomas because either him or Eric Decker will be the new Reggie Wayne and you always take flyers on Peyton Manning wide receivers.

Rounds 11 & 12

Pick I Love: It is a well known fact that Phillip Rivers is a reputable quarterback. Even though he is forever linked to two quarterbacks who have, collectively, won 3 of the past 4 Super Bowls, he somehow is never compared unfavorably (For the unitiated, the Chargers traded future 2-time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning for Phillip Rivers and then let future Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees go to the Saints via free agency so that Rivers could start). All this means is that you know Phillip Rivers is going to be throwing the ball a lot and will be throwing it well. Malcom Floyd has never had more than 45 receptions in a season, but sstill came close to getting 1,000 yards total receiving last year. With Vincent Jackson gone and Antonio Gates losing the race with Father Time, Floyd is poised to fill the gaping void in the Chargers aerial assault. Yes, the Chargers did add Robert Meachem and it's not entirely certain which one is going to be the man. But, in the 12th round, that's a smart wager to make.

Honorable Mentions: Peyton Hillis is 2010 Thomas Jones- a solid flex play every week. Torrey Smith is going to be the best receiver in Baltimore, albeit by default.

Pick I Hate: You know, I was preparing a well-researched argument against Santonio Holmes when suddenly, Tune takes a kicker in the 12th round. TUNE! All kickers are practically the same and it's impossible to tell which one will do better in a given season! Look at Nate Kaeding last year! This is Fantasy Football 101. And Matthew Berry gave you an A, despite this?! He must drop your lowest grade! I expect better of you, Tune! COME ON, MAN!

Well, back to Santonio Holmes. I think people are starting to catch onto his game, but I would never ever take this guy again. He's a perennial underachiever. His best year by far was 2009 when he was, incidentally, playing for a contract. So he fall under the Albert Haynesworth Protocol. Furthermore, since he left future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger for future Used Car Salesman Mark Sanchez, his numbers fell off precipitously. 746 yards in 2010, 654 yards in 2011, and in 2012, he has the looming shadow of Tim Tebow ominously in the background, just waiting to make 70% of the Jets offense go through the ground. Santonio Holmes is a high risk, low upside player and the only reason you would ever take him is if you had fond memories of his play in the 2008 Super Bowl against the Arizona Cardinals (Go Steelers!).

Picks I Made: The Steelers are, historically, a great rushing team. Isaac Redman is poised to take over the rushing job from Rashard Mendenhall this year. Redman's career yards per carry are respectable, although not overwhelming. If Redman can assert himself as the dominant back in Pittsburgh, and he is by far the back most likely to do it, he'll easily be a reliable starter week in and week out. In the 11th round, there aren't many guys left who have a realistic shot at being the featured running back. As for Denarius Moore, the decision rested on three primary motivations: 1. Carson Palmer improved dramatically once he familiarized himself with the Raiders offense, instead of just rolling out of bed and declaring himself to be NFL ready. 2. Denarius Moore was explosive when healthy last season and should be Palmer's top target. 3. His name sounds downright Roman. Always play your Romans.

Rounds 13, 14, 15 & 16

Picks I Like A Lot: Love is a strong word to use for these late round picks. I like Kenny Britt at 105. He's gotta a lot of talent, but he may spend most of the season behind bars or in a hospital or both (he may get shanked). I also like Justin Blackmon at 104. So good grabs by Dylan at wide receiver late. I like Jay Cutler late. There are some questions about his offensive line, but if you can get top 10 potential in the 14th round, you do it.

Picks I Hate: In no particular order: every kicker taken before the 16th round, James Starks, LeGarette Blount, Felix Jones, Lance Moore, Sydney Rice and the Seahawks Defense. In a nutshell, the explanations are: it's Fantasy 101 and half the league failed, Starks may be cut from his real life football team, LeGarette Blount's and Felix Jones's careers both died last year and its disrespectful to exhume their corpses so soon, Lance Moore will never, ever start for a fantasy team in this league, Sydney Rice is notoriously unhealthy, and I don't even understand the Seahawks Defense being taken. Seriously, name one player off the top of your head who plays on Seattle's Defense. You either can't do it or you cheated and looked up their roster online.

Picks I Made: At this point in the draft, the question becomes "Why not?". Toby Gerhart averaged 5.0 yards per carry while filling in for Adrian Peterson last year. At the time, no one knew how long he would have the starting job to himself. As it is, he'll still probably get the majority of carries so that makes him a decent flex play if Richardson doesn't recover. Steelers defense has been the #1 fantasy defense every other year for the past four years. It's their turn on the cycle to be a #1 defense. Also, go Steelers! Then there's the Jets Defense because the Jets have the best cornerback in football, Category: Names I Can Pronounce. They also have Buffalo, Miami and Indianapolis on the schedule in the first five weeks. And all kickers are exactly the same in the big picture, but I do love me some Rob Bironas.

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