Sunday, December 6, 2015

ID Update

It seems like November never lasts as long as you’d think it would. I’m sure this has nothing to do with the literally days of time I’ve sunk into Fallout 4 and football, and is really just a profound statement on the ephemerality of time. It seems like just yesterday, the Hunterian Velociraptors were on the verge of extinction in the great Iron Dirigible league with a 2-4 record, including a disgraceful 0-3 start that included being defeated by the Bean. But Velociraptors are renowned for their cleverness and we pounced on the proverbial Robert Muldoon that was our opposition and went 5-1 over the next six weeks. Now, the Velociraptors could feasibly get a bye week despite being 7th in scoring, despite never making good on my promise to update my blog more. It’s almost like the outcome of fantasy football are impacted by the players on the field instead of the commenters on the sideline.

No. That’s crazy talk.

So, in anticipation of the last week of regular season games, I figured I would do that thing I used to do every week in undergraduate where I write up a brief preview of each match-up and discuss the potential playoff implications. Boy, there sure was a lot of spare time in those days.

19th Hole vs More Dr Pepper AKA The Doctor’s Bowl
There are no playoff implications here. Unless I somehow outscore Sam by 114 points (BELIEVE) and Tune also loses, Sam has a first round bye locked up. That’s really impressive for someone who a) did the Autodraft, b) started an injured kicker for 3 weeks, and c) also lost his #1 pick halfway through the year. Sam is like if you mixed Taco from The League with the T-800 from The Terminator: unengaged but ruthlessly efficient. I guess Brian is playing to avoid the ignominy of a ten loss season. I assume that there’s also some sort of medical themed side bet going on like having to wear their OR scrubs in the ER or wearing their otoscopes like stethoscopes. Side note: I know having the nickname Dorian should make Brian “Dr. Dorian” from Scrubs, but since he’s married to a nurse instead of endlessly involved in flings with Blonde Doctor (as the Janitor would say), does that actually make him more like Turk? His involvement in fantasy football suggests that he likes sports (score one for Turk), but his record suggests he does not understand them (score one for Doctor Dorian). I feel like there should be an open forum on what Brian’s nickname going forward should be.
West Katzen Maus Munchers vs Vandy Pimpmasters AKA The Alliance Against Hobbits Bowl
Conversely, this is the most important game of the week since it involves one of the core principles of the Iron Dirigible: crushing the Bean. While the league succeeded at this goal the first five years of its existence, the Hobbit has made the finals three years in a row. This game is crucial to the playoff picture since these teams have been competing to see who can tailspin the fastest after starting the year 4-2. So far, the Baron has taken the inside track with his bold strategy of having all the Ravens get injured. In retrospect, this was the most likely outcome to putting a lot of bird team players on a team ran by a cat. No one’s talking about all the birds the Baron didn’t eat! Conversely, Doug’s team has been alternating between unstoppable, shrimp fueled juggernaut or protein shake fueled pushover by scoring either more than 97 or less than 71 every game since Week 6. There is a middle ground you can take, PMD, M.D. There are literally dozens of points in that middle ground. DOZENS! Open question: which is the higher rank: Baron or Doctor?

Hunterian Velociraptors vs Team McLovin AKA The Opposite Directions Bowl
I’ve already talked about my team at length in the intro, but I would just like to reiterate that I’ve gone 7-2 over the last nine weeks despite not having outstanding scores for nine weeks. I’m like the Carolina Panthers in that I use my superior defense and quarterback play to cover up the fact that I don’t have any receivers. Conversely, Dylan has gone from sitting atop a throne made of the skulls of his enemies at 6-2 to losing 4 straight to plummet to 6-6 and enter the fray for the final 3 playoff spots. In fairness to Dylan, signing Rob Ryan to be his defensive coordinator proved to be a major mistake as he gave up scores of 122, 124, and 140 during the four game losing streak. But he also put up 3 games under 75 during that same losing streak for reasons that are hard to figure beyond “many players not doing well at once”. I thought it might be tied to the performance of Dylan’s best players (Gurley & Julio) but they had 26 of his 62 points in Week 11 and 7 of his 97 points in Week 12. My diagnosis: Dylan can’t trust any of his players and should probably bench them all this week, just to be safe. Also, it is patently insane that a team that starts 6-2 could feasibly miss the playoffs.

Team Tune vs Belmont Godfearers
As I mentioned before, one of the founding principles of Iron Dirigible is to crush the Bean. Yet if Tune loses here, all will have failed in their sacred task to not lose to the Bean (myself included), save for Sam, the Taco-800 himself. Sure we started out the year great, and we all beat the Bean (except me) to force him to a 1-5 start. But he has shown Hunterian resilience in clawing his way back to a 5-7 record and I’m proud to say that my revenge victory also sealed a sub-.500 year for the Bean. Tune rattled off an impressive 6 wins in a row after a middling 2-2 start, until a lunar eclipse sapped him of his powers and gave him back to back losses (including to Sam, who is finding his way into a lot of stories today). Also, I somehow beat Tune twice this year, giving me the head-to-head tie breaker.

Playoff Scenarios

Bean and Baron lose: This depends on how many points each team scores. If the Baron outscores the Bean by more than six, the Baron advances. If the Bean outscores the Baron or is only outscored by 5 or less, then the Bean advances. If the Baron outscores the Bean by precisely six points, I'm going to need to think of a tertiary tie breaker. Maybe least amount of opposable thumbs?

Bean and Baron win: This creates a three team log jam at 6-7. Also, Doug has, by astonishing coincidence, scored the precise amount of points as Bean and only six more than the Baron through 12 games. So if the Baron beats Doug by six and Bean has the same number of points as Doug, we will have three teams perfectly tied. Hang on, I'm gonna go consult the NFL's rules for breaking three way ties. It says "Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs)" so I guess I'll calculate the team's records in the 4 games each played against the other two teams duking it out for the last two seats. Is it unlikely to happen? Absolutely. But it could happen and it will happen if I don't devise a  tie breaker.

NB: these standings assume that the Bean and Baron win their games since if they don't, this whole exercise was a waste of time!

Baron: 3-1
Bean: 2-2
Doug: 1-3

Long story short: if there is a perfect log jam at 6-7 with equal points scored between all 3 teams, the Baron and the Bean advance.

Bean, Baron, Sam, and Hunter win: This is what I call "The Golden Scenario" since it results in me getting a bye week. All I need is for every game to go a specific way without deviation. Simple, right?

Listen gang, I wanted to do this more in depth. I started it on Thursday, but all of the sudden it's Sunday morning and I'm at a real risk of not getting this out in time. So in the likely event that something happens I did not anticipate, we can all agree that we should kick Bean out of the playoffs.